The EU Offers an Invitation to Ukraine, Yet Can It Ever Join?
Ukraine's president, while leading his country during a conflict, is also chasing a dream for peacetime: achieving EU accession for his country promptly.
Ukraine's tireless president is ramping up demands on European Union member states to speed up the protracted membership process. He portrays the collective struggle of Ukrainians as a fight "for the Ukrainian future, the future of Ukraine inside the EU."
This dream of 40 million citizens obtaining EU citizenship is, in theory, endorsed by the bloc as well. These days, hardly any meeting in Brussels ends without the country's inclusion being referred to as a "geopolitical necessity."
This rhetoric portrays the nation's survival and the continent's long-term security as two sides of the same coin. Yet, for a long time following the 2004 "big bang" that welcomed 10 ex- eastern bloc countries, there was zero desire for additional members, especially not the large eastern nation. Putin's tanks altered the situation entirely – just a short time of the illegal 2022 full-scale invasion, Kyiv had applied for, and received, "candidate country" status. A year, European leaders took the historic step to open accession negotiations with a country in conflict, although without a set timeframe. Neighbouring the Republic of Moldova, the former Soviet republic thought to be next in Putin's sights, vaulted to the top of the queue along with its neighbor.
Recently, the EU's executive body published its official assessment of the progress of 10 aspiring states, and ranked Ukraine and Moldova among the four leading candidates, together with Albania and Montenegro. The EU foreign policy chief stated it was a realistic target that these four could all be in the European Union by the year 2030.
The country's favorable evaluation is objectively impressive. Enemy missile attacks are hammering the nation's power infrastructure regularly, its treasury is nearly empty and many millions of its people are displaced, metaphorically camped out in other parts of the continent. Its negotiators are frequently physically in shelters. But, in EU headquarters, representatives are upbeat about the massive reform effort being implemented in the capital despite ongoing concerns about graft. Details of an alleged scandal at Ukraine's national power company continue to surface. Nevertheless, they claim, negotiations could be complete by late 2028. Talks with small the Balkan states could be done by 2026 and the following year, in that order.
Major Hurdles Remain
However, there exists a sobering reality gap: the EU executive does not decide who joins. The 27 existing member states hold that power, and they must vote unanimously through each phase. Furthermore, at least for now, the EU's resident autocrat Viktor Orbán is obstructing the official opening of talks with Ukraine. And because Moldova is grouped with the larger nation, it also is stuck.
Attention are on elections in the central European country in April, which unseat Orbán. But other EU governments with domestic political concerns may be hiding using Hungary. With far-right parties gaining strength in major European nations and currently in power in other countries, the broader environment for Ukraine's acceptance is daunting.
Analysts note a discrepancy between rhetorical support and actual intentions. "I am not convinced that a lot of countries in the Union really want Ukraine to be a member state, for different reasons," says a close observer of the accession procedure. "Yet it is a great shame: because the EU would gain immensely by admitting Ukraine."
What Are the Challenges?
A geopolitical case for admitting Ukraine may be increasingly pressing considering the Kremlin's "unconventional warfare" on Europe, but considering its scale and intricacy, so are the political and financial hurdles. Once the talks are finished, approval by all the 27 member states – some require public votes – is formally required for every new member. And while public support for Ukraine's admission is certainly high in Nordic states, a significant portion throughout the Union reject it.
Radical right parties are gaining ground and some of them are strongly anti-European and anti-enlargement. With the French far-right leader's far-right party plausibly aiming for power in the French Republic in 2027, a referendum in the country on the candidate's membership would be a difficult battle. Even among pro-expansion states, there is trepidation about the costs involved, given Ukraine's economic challenges and staggering reconstruction requirements. A bitter dispute over whether to seize €140bn of immobilized Russian assets to bail out the nation before it exhausts its funds in the spring is ongoing. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, meanwhile, worry that their farming sectors will be harmed if Ukraine, a huge farming country and competitor, obtains eligibility for agricultural subsidies.
Enlargement in general, it is worried, could weaken rather than strengthen the EU, unless institutional changes are first carried out to prevent gridlock in a club of 30-something nations. However that could take a long time.
Winning Support and Trojan Horses
Representatives in the EU capital may have innovative solutions to the Hungarian leader's blockade such as "front-loading", where discussions could start unofficially until Hungary's veto is lifted.
Discussions are underway, also, of writing tough new regulatory guarantees and lengthy probationary phases into new accession agreements to appease doubters. Nobody desires new member states that formally seem to uphold the democratic norms, but who prove to be "internal threats" to the union.
Public relations efforts and "messaging" to gain the hearts and minds of the public in both the current countries and the candidate nations are in development. It is clear, however, that raising expectations and then leaving millions in uncertainty for too long carries dangers. As the Moldova's leader, Maia Sandu, who in September overcame Russian interference to achieve a impressive pro-EU election victory, warned recently: "If we fail to deliver in the coming years … then what will be the message to the people?"
Zelenskyy used an exclusive interview to stress the dangers of Russia initiating conflict against another European country before the Ukraine war concludes. He further emphasized Ukraine's resilience at a critical moment, and his love for his fellow Ukrainians. "I believe that
