Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The mean figure of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new administrative data. However, security analysts have cautioned that murder numbers might not indicate improved national stability.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the least number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the US. However, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, security analysts cautioned that relying on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is particularly true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may mask periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.