American Armed Forces Buildup near Venezuelan Coast Recalls Echoes of 1989 Panama Invasion
Through night-vision equipment, Mike Durant viewed as two massive laser-guided bombs slammed onto the Panamanian airbase while he remained airborne off the nation's south coast in a military aircraft.
"The gigantic flash, followed by a boom ... comparable to the largest lightning flash you've ever experienced in your lifetime," the retired American army pilot described of the opening salvo of the Battle of Rio Hato's Air Base in December 1989.
Past Comparisons
The stealth aircraft assault and subsequent military special forces assault marked the beginning of the Panama invasion - designed to oust Panama's armed forces dictator, General Noriega.
Durant and his fellow soldiers had directives to take control of the Panama's military forces installation to prevent soldiers moving to the dictator's defense. Over the subsequent period, the pilot and more than 25,000 other US troops hunted the dictator, who finally capitulated on January 3rd 1990.
"Noriega was a bad, bad person ... and he needed to be ousted," commented Durant.
Present-Day Military Movements
Remembrances of Operation Just Cause have reemerged in the past few weeks after Donald Trump authorized the biggest US armed forces buildup in the region and the Caribbean Sea since the time of that invasion nearly four decades ago.
A seventh of US naval forces - featuring the world's biggest aircraft carrier, the USS Ford - have been sent to the area since August, with B-52 bombers and elite troops observed off Venezuelan north coast. Airstrikes on reported drug ships in the Pacific and Caribbean have resulted in the deaths of over 60 individuals.
Stated vs Suspected Objectives
Formally, the positioning of naval vessels, military drones and about 10,000 military troops is a component of a operation on South American criminal organizations who Trump alleges of flooding the United States with illegal substances. But numerous believe the administration's true aim is overthrowing Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, similar to George HW Bush toppled Noriega prior to he was prosecuted and jailed in the US.
Opposition Viewpoints
Several representatives of Venezuela's political opposition seem eager for a replay of Just Cause, on an even larger scale. The overseas politician Leopoldo López lately voiced support for a American attack to oust Maduro, who is commonly believed to have manipulated last year's presidential vote.
"Not to be the bearer of negative information, but it seems like we are about to begin on yet another government overthrow operation, similar to, next week's time," stated Tucker Carlson last week, citing Iraq as a primary case of the US's problematic track record of government overthrows that backfired.
"It never works - but we are attempting it once more, evidently," Carlson commented.
American and Expert Perspective
A recent poll found nearly 50% of the public resistant to utilizing military intervention to overthrow Maduro with merely 18% in favor.
Durant additionally had reservations, despite considering Just Cause the most effective operation of his two-decade military career. He was convinced American forces could overthrow Maduro, as they had Noriega. "We have tremendous capacity and great personnel. But is it worthwhile risking all that at risk?" questioned Durant.
Prior to the Panama operation, thousands of US soldiers were stationed in Panama, Durant commented, but it has no similar footprint in the country.
Strategic Analysis
The situation was additionally uncertain how capable the Venezuelan leader's Venezuelan troops were of fighting against an invasion. "That to me is the greatest uncertainty," Durant remarked. "They do good parades. But what can they really do? Are they prepared? Are they supported? Are they ready to fight? Are they loyal?"
Past Comparisons
Michael Grow, a academic who wrote study about US leaders and South American Cold War operations, saw "interesting similarities" to historical operations.
In the year 1988, on the brink of the Panama operation, the US charged Noriega for narcotics smuggling - just as they have with Maduro who in recent times had a $50m bounty placed on his head for allegedly operating a "drug trafficking" network. "Therefore ... they've established a convenient justification if they choose to pursue a military route," Grow said.
Possible Outcomes
"But I do not think it's on the cards with Trump ... These particular individuals are not neo-conservatives. They're far more isolationist ... I simply do not see the United States getting entangled in a land war in the continent," Grow remarked, though he didn't exclude "surgical attack unmanned operations"
Ambassador Story, the US's chief diplomat for the country from 2018 to 2023, also skeptical about a Just Cause-style attack was likely: "The United States always prefer overwhelming strength and it would take 100,000 troops - and that's not Trump."
Alternative Strategies
But the former diplomat - who initially viewed Trump's armed forces deployment sabre-rattling - now saw an 80% probability of "some preemptive measure" on Venezuelan soil in the coming 30 days' time, likely an airstrike. "The level of forces that have been arranged in the area suggest to me that we are preparing
